In a coalition government it is essential to have support from basis to have governability. However, with elections arriving and stress of current President Temer’s Government, it is difficult to have important projects approved in Congress. Due to this scenario, the Minister of Government Affairs, Mr. Marun informed that the priorities are MPV 821/2018, that creates the Extraordinary Ministry of National Security, the PLP 441/2017, that refers to the Positive Registration, and the PL 10.332/2018 that refers to the privatization of Eletrobras’ distributors.
The Government scored with MPV821/2018 that creates the Extraordinary Ministry of National Security by articulating its already fragmented basis in the House of Representatives. The government scored with the approval of the MPV on June 13th, 2018, now, the game will be easier once the base in the Senate is stronger than in the House of Representatives, so the Government can approve its projects without conflicts with the opposition.
The PLP 441/2017 modifies Complementary Law 105 from January 10th, 2010 and Law 12.414 from June 9th, 2011 so it can refer to Positive Registration and regulate civil responsibility of its operators. This PLP, despite being approved by the Senate on November 8th, 2017, is now in opposition’s territory, once the President of the House of Representatives, Mr. Rodrigo Maia, is opposing President Michel Temer. Ministry Marun will need to go through opposition including Mr. Maia. The basis text has been approved since May 9th, 2018 and is waiting for release of amendments. However, leaders from Government and production sector have not reached an agreement on the final text yet.
The PL 10.332/2018 on the other hand, refers to privatization of Eletrobras distributors and is a necessary bet from the Government to increase tax collection. This law will have to go through the Plenary of the House of Representatives (no deliberative session called thus far), the Plenary of the Senate and, then, go back to the House of Representatives. This must happen until July 17th, 2018, which is the Congress’ deadline to vote the LDO (Law of Budget Guidelines). It is expected that the Government increases pressure for both projects to be approved on time.
In this scenario, it will be a tough game for Brazil until mid of July, once it must show its power in attack by the articulation of Ministry Marun in favor of President Temer, consolidate the government as a solid defense with the intervenor General Walter Braga Netto, the National Security Minister Raul Jungmann, and the Defense Minister, Joaquim Silva e Luna. These efforts are towards putting on hold Mr. Rodrigo Maia (President of House of Representatives) and his associates to maintain power in 2019. Tough game for Temer.